Open Science & Tech Polymarket

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

$529K Vol. Closes Jul 30, 2026

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$529K Vol.

Jacob Tsimerman

82% market probability

82%
Yes 82% +18 / −82 No 19% +81 / −19

Hong Wang

66% market probability

66%
Yes 66% +34 / −66 No 34% +66 / −34

Jack Thorne

61% market probability

61%
Yes 61% +39 / −61 No 39% +61 / −39

Yu Deng

50% market probability

50%
Yes 50% +50 / −50 No 50% +50 / −50

Vesselin Dimitrov

48% market probability

48%
Yes 48% +52 / −48 No 52% +48 / −52

John Pardon

35% market probability

35%
Yes 35% +65 / −35 No 65% +35 / −65

Aleksandr Logunov

27% market probability

27%
Yes 27% +73 / −27 No 73% +27 / −73

Sam Raskin

26% market probability

26%
Yes 26% +74 / −26 No 74% +26 / −74

Julian Sahasrabudhe

24% market probability

24%
Yes 24% +76 / −24 No 76% +24 / −76

Will Sawin

13% market probability

13%
Yes 13% +87 / −13 No 87% +13 / −87

Alexander Efimov

8% market probability

8%
Yes 8% +92 / −8 No 92% +8 / −92
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