Open Pop Culture Polymarket

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

$529K Vol. Closes Jul 30, 2026

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

$528.5k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$529K Vol.

Jacob Tsimerman

74% market probability

74%
Yes 74% +26 / −74 No 26% +74 / −26

Hong Wang

72% market probability

72%
Yes 72% +28 / −72 No 29% +71 / −29

Jack Thorne

58% market probability

58%
Yes 58% +42 / −58 No 42% +58 / −42

Yu Deng

56% market probability

56%
Yes 56% +44 / −56 No 44% +56 / −44

Vesselin Dimitrov

51% market probability

51%
Yes 51% +49 / −51 No 49% +51 / −49

John Pardon

34% market probability

34%
Yes 34% +66 / −34 No 66% +34 / −66

Aleksandr Logunov

28% market probability

28%
Yes 28% +72 / −28 No 72% +28 / −72

Sam Raskin

26% market probability

26%
Yes 26% +74 / −26 No 74% +26 / −74

Julian Sahasrabudhe

24% market probability

24%
Yes 24% +76 / −24 No 76% +24 / −76

Will Sawin

14% market probability

14%
Yes 14% +86 / −14 No 86% +14 / −86

Alexander Efimov

8% market probability

8%
Yes 8% +92 / −8 No 92% +8 / −92
Log in to place your forecast on this event.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.