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Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Top outcomes

Anthropic 88%
Google 8%
OpenAI 4%
xAI 1%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

$1.6M Vol. Closes Jun 30, 2026

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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$1.6m Vol.

All outcomes

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$1.6M Vol.

Anthropic

88% market probability

88%
Yes 88% +12 / −88 No 12% +88 / −12

Google

8% market probability

8%
Yes 8% +92 / −8 No 92% +8 / −92

OpenAI

4% market probability

4%
Yes 4% +96 / −4 No 96% +4 / −96

xAI

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Meta

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

DeepSeek

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Z.ai

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Microsoft

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Baidu

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Amazon

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Alibaba

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Meituan

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Mistral

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Moonshot

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

ByteDance

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
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