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Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of September?
Top outcomes
OpenAI
82%
Other
50%
Company A
50%
Company B
50%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Image Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Image Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Image Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
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$35K Vol.
Closes Oct 1, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$34.5k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$35K Vol.
OpenAI
82% market probability
82%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 82%
+18 / −82
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 18%
+82 / −18
Other
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Other
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Company A
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Company B
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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0 / 2,000
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Company C
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Company D
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Company E
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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0 / 2,000
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Company F
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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0 / 2,000
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Company G
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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0 / 2,000
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Company H
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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0 / 2,000
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Company I
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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0 / 2,000
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Company J
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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0 / 2,000
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Company K
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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0 / 2,000
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Company L
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Company M
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Company M
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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SpaceXAI
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
Explain your Yes on SpaceXAI
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0 / 2,000
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Google
6% market probability
6%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 94%
+6 / −94
Explain your Yes on Google
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Reve
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on Reve
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0 / 2,000
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Microsoft AI
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on Microsoft AI
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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ByteDance
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on ByteDance
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Meta
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on Meta
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Black Forest Labs
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Black Forest Labs
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Recraft
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Ideogram
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Tencent
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Tencent
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Luma AI
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Luma AI
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Alibaba
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Alibaba
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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