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When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?

Top outcomes

No return before November 1, 2026 76%
October 1 - 31, 2026 24%
September 15 - 30, 2026 0%
Before September 15, 2026 0%

This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).

$127K Vol. Closes Nov 1, 2026

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$127.3k Vol.

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$127K Vol.

No return before November 1, 2026

76% market probability

76%

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0 / 2,000

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October 1 - 31, 2026

24% market probability

24%

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0 / 2,000

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September 15 - 30, 2026

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Before September 15, 2026

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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