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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (July 27 - August 2)

Top outcomes

Fear 100%
Iran 100%
Trump 100%
China / Chinese 100%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between July 27 and August 2, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify. If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies. If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution. This market only pertains to the daily New York edition prints of the New York Times, also available at https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/. Only the first official release of a qualifying front page will be counted. Any subsequent releases that differ from the initial release will not be considered. Other editions will not be considered. You can find an example of what counts here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/nyt-headlines.jpeg.

$13K Vol. Closes Aug 2, 2026

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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$13.1k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$13K Vol.

Fear

100% market probability

100%

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0 / 2,000

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Iran

100% market probability

100%

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0 / 2,000

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Trump

100% market probability

100%

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0 / 2,000

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China / Chinese

100% market probability

100%

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0 / 2,000

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AI / Artificial Intelligence

100% market probability

100%

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0 / 2,000

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Oil / Gas

80% market probability

80%

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0 / 2,000

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Ukraine / Ukrainian

79% market probability

79%

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0 / 2,000

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Israel

74% market probability

74%

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0 / 2,000

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Drug

61% market probability

61%

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0 / 2,000

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Reserve

58% market probability

58%

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0 / 2,000

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Border

53% market probability

53%

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0 / 2,000

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Moon

52% market probability

52%

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0 / 2,000

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Mexico

52% market probability

52%

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0 / 2,000

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Deal

51% market probability

51%

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0 / 2,000

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Peace

36% market probability

36%

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0 / 2,000

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Japan

27% market probability

27%

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0 / 2,000

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Rigged

10% market probability

10%

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0 / 2,000

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Liberation

9% market probability

9%

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0 / 2,000

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Woman

6% market probability

6%

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0 / 2,000

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Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

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