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What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference?
Top outcomes
Inflation 20+ times
88%
Balance Sheet
84%
Central Bank
82%
AI / Artificial Intelligence
78%
Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no such statement by Warsh happens by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.
For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$24.9k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$25K Vol.
Inflation 20+ times
88% market probability
88%
Yes 88%
+12 / −88
No 12%
+88 / −12
Balance Sheet
84% market probability
84%
Yes 84%
+16 / −84
No 16%
+84 / −16
Central Bank
82% market probability
82%
Yes 82%
+18 / −82
No 18%
+82 / −18
AI / Artificial Intelligence
78% market probability
78%
Yes 78%
+22 / −78
No 22%
+78 / −22
Good day
73% market probability
73%
Yes 73%
+27 / −73
No 27%
+73 / −27
Productivity
72% market probability
72%
Yes 72%
+28 / −72
No 29%
+71 / −29
Uncertainty
70% market probability
70%
Yes 70%
+30 / −70
No 31%
+69 / −31
Oil
69% market probability
69%
Yes 69%
+31 / −69
No 31%
+69 / −31
Restrictive
66% market probability
66%
Yes 66%
+34 / −66
No 34%
+66 / −34
Bet / Betting
52% market probability
52%
Yes 52%
+48 / −52
No 48%
+52 / −48
Shock
48% market probability
48%
Yes 48%
+52 / −48
No 52%
+48 / −52
Projection
45% market probability
45%
Yes 45%
+55 / −45
No 55%
+45 / −55
Dollar
42% market probability
42%
Yes 42%
+58 / −42
No 57%
+43 / −57
Task Force 20+ times
42% market probability
42%
Yes 42%
+58 / −42
No 57%
+43 / −57
Echo of History
42% market probability
42%
Yes 42%
+58 / −42
No 58%
+42 / −58
Independence
40% market probability
40%
Yes 40%
+60 / −40
No 60%
+40 / −60
Inflation 40+ times
36% market probability
36%
Yes 36%
+64 / −36
No 64%
+36 / −64
President
36% market probability
36%
Yes 36%
+64 / −36
No 64%
+36 / −64
North Star
36% market probability
36%
Yes 36%
+64 / −36
No 64%
+36 / −64
Anchor / Anchored
34% market probability
34%
Yes 34%
+66 / −34
No 66%
+34 / −66
Predecessor
31% market probability
31%
Yes 31%
+69 / −31
No 69%
+31 / −69
Groupthink / Group think
30% market probability
30%
Yes 30%
+70 / −30
No 70%
+30 / −70
Pandemic
28% market probability
28%
Yes 28%
+72 / −28
No 72%
+28 / −72
Recession
26% market probability
26%
Yes 26%
+74 / −26
No 74%
+26 / −74
Crypto / Cryptocurrency
18% market probability
18%
Yes 18%
+82 / −18
No 82%
+18 / −82
Iran
15% market probability
15%
Yes 15%
+85 / −15
No 85%
+15 / −85
Good Afternoon
14% market probability
14%
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
No 86%
+14 / −86
Tax
14% market probability
14%
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
No 86%
+14 / −86
Dissent
14% market probability
14%
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
No 86%
+14 / −86
Consumer Confidence
10% market probability
10%
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
No 90%
+10 / −90
Trump
8% market probability
8%
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
No 92%
+8 / −92
Renovation
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
-No Qualifying Event-
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
Public forecast history
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