US forces enter Venezuela again by...?

Top outcomes

June 30 9%

March 31 0%

January 10 0%

January 31 0%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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$1.3M Vol. Closed Jan 31, 2026

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$1.3m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$1.3M Vol.

June 30

9% market probability

Yes 9% +91 / −9 No 91% +9 / −91

March 31

0% market probability

Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

January 10

0% market probability

Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

January 31

0% market probability

Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Forecasts are closed because this market is no longer accepting forecasts.

Public forecast history

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No forecasts were placed before this market closed.