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Tour De France 2026: Margin of Victory
Top outcomes
>7 minutes
94%
Other
50%
Range A
50%
5:00-6:59
4%
This market will resolve in favor of the bracket that matches the margin of victory between the winner and 2nd place at the conclusion of the 2026 Tour De France.
If the 2026 Tour De France is cancelled, postponed, or the margin of victory cannot be determined as equaling or exceeding the listed number by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the official information from the UCI; however, a consensus of credible sources may also be used.
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$21K Vol.
Closes Jul 26, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$20.8k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$21K Vol.
>7 minutes
94% market probability
94%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 94%
+6 / −94
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 6%
+94 / −6
Other
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Other
Explain your No on Other
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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Range A
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Range A
Explain your No on Range A
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
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5:00-6:59
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on 5:00-6:59
Explain your No on 5:00-6:59
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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3:00-4:59
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on 3:00-4:59
Explain your No on 3:00-4:59
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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1:00-2:59
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on 1:00-2:59
Explain your No on 1:00-2:59
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
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<1 minute
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on <1 minute
Explain your No on <1 minute
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Public forecast history
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