Open Science & Tech Polymarket

September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

Top outcomes

2nd hottest 58%
3rd hottest 37%
1st hottest 36%
4th or lower 26%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record. Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

$525 Vol. Closes Oct 1, 2026

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$525 Vol.

All outcomes

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$525 Vol.

2nd hottest

58% market probability

58%

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0 / 2,000

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3rd hottest

37% market probability

37%

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0 / 2,000

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1st hottest

36% market probability

36%

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0 / 2,000

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4th or lower

26% market probability

26%

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0 / 2,000

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Public forecast history

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