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Precipitation in Hong Kong in July?
Top outcomes
600mm+
25%
400-425mm
24%
450-475mm
22%
475-500mm
22%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between July 1 and July 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in July 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
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$3K Vol.
Closes Jul 31, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$3.0k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$3K Vol.
600mm+
25% market probability
25%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 25%
+75 / −25
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 75%
+25 / −75
400-425mm
24% market probability
24%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 24%
+76 / −24
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 76%
+24 / −76
Explain your Yes on 400-425mm
Explain your No on 400-425mm
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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450-475mm
22% market probability
22%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 78%
+22 / −78
Explain your Yes on 450-475mm
Explain your No on 450-475mm
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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475-500mm
22% market probability
22%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 78%
+22 / −78
Explain your Yes on 475-500mm
Explain your No on 475-500mm
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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575-600mm
22% market probability
22%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 78%
+22 / −78
Explain your Yes on 575-600mm
Explain your No on 575-600mm
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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500-525mm
21% market probability
21%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 21%
+79 / −21
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 79%
+21 / −79
Explain your Yes on 500-525mm
Explain your No on 500-525mm
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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425-450mm
12% market probability
12%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 88%
+12 / −88
Explain your Yes on 425-450mm
Explain your No on 425-450mm
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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525-550mm
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on 525-550mm
Explain your No on 525-550mm
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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<400mm
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
Explain your Yes on <400mm
Explain your No on <400mm
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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550-575mm
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on 550-575mm
Explain your No on 550-575mm
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
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