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Next UK Defence Secretary in 2026?
Top outcomes
Other
50%
Person A
50%
Person B
50%
Person C
50%
This market will resolve to the individual who is officially appointed as the next Defence Secretary of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Defence Secretary will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Defence Secretary is appointed, or Dan Jarvis is re-appointed as Defence Secretary, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No next Defence Secretary in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$66.4k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$66K Vol.
Other
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person A
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person B
50% market probability
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person C
50% market probability
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person D
50% market probability
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person E
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person F
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person G
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person H
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person I
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
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Person J
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
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Person K
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person L
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
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Person M
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
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Person N
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person O
50% market probability
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person P
50% market probability
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person Q
50% market probability
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person R
50% market probability
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person S
50% market probability
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person T
50% market probability
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person U
50% market probability
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person V
50% market probability
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person W
50% market probability
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person X
50% market probability
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person Y
50% market probability
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Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person Z
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
John Healey
43% market probability
43%
Yes 43%
+57 / −43
No 57%
+43 / −57
Yvette Cooper
24% market probability
24%
Yes 24%
+76 / −24
No 76%
+24 / −76
No next Defence Secretary in 2026
12% market probability
12%
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
No 88%
+12 / −88
Pat McFadden
4% market probability
4%
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
No 96%
+4 / −96
Heidi Alexander
3% market probability
3%
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
No 97%
+3 / −97
Al Carns
3% market probability
3%
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
No 97%
+3 / −97
Luke Pollard
1% market probability
1%
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
No 99%
+1 / −99
Douglas Alexander
1% market probability
1%
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
No 99%
+1 / −99
Louise Haigh
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Public forecast history
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