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Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
Top outcomes
No Next Chancellor before 2028
50%
Other
50%
Person A
50%
Person B
50%
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.
This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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$111.3k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$111K Vol.
No Next Chancellor before 2028
50% market probability
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Yes 50%
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No 50%
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Other
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No 50%
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Person A
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Person B
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Person C
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Person D
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Person E
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Person F
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Person G
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Person H
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Person I
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Person J
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Person K
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Person L
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Person M
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Person N
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Person O
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Person P
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Person Q
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Person R
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Person S
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Person T
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Person U
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Person V
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Person W
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Person X
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Person Y
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Person Z
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Person AA
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Person AB
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Person AC
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Person AD
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Person AE
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Person AF
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Person AG
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Person AH
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Person AI
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Person AJ
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Person AK
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Person AL
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Person AM
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Person AN
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Person AO
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Person AP
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Person AQ
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Person AR
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Person AS
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Person AT
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Person AU
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Person AV
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Person AW
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Person AX
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Person AY
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Person AZ
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Hendrik Wüst
14% market probability
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Boris Pistorius
5% market probability
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Alice Weidel
4% market probability
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Markus Söder
2% market probability
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+98 / −2
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Lars Klingbeil
1% market probability
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+99 / −1
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+1 / −99
Felix Banaszak
1% market probability
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+99 / −1
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+1 / −99
Carsten Linnemann
1% market probability
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+99 / −1
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+1 / −99
Jens Spahn
0% market probability
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+0 / −100
Tino Chrupalla
0% market probability
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Heidi Reichinnek
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Katharina Dröge
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Sahra Wagenknecht
0% market probability
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+0 / −100
Public forecast history
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