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Israel military action against Yemen by...?

Top outcomes

June 30 24%
May 31 0%
April 15 0%
April 30 0%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

$2.1M Vol. Closes Jun 30, 2026

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$2.1m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$2.1M Vol.

June 30

24% market probability

24%
Yes 24% +76 / −24 No 76% +24 / −76

May 31

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

April 15

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

April 30

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

March 31

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
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