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How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?

Top outcomes

190-209 42%
170-189 33%
210-229 14%
230+ 7%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

$25K Vol. Closes Sep 6, 2026

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$25.0k Vol.

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$25K Vol.

190-209

42% market probability

42%

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0 / 2,000

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170-189

33% market probability

33%

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0 / 2,000

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210-229

14% market probability

14%

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0 / 2,000

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230+

7% market probability

7%

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0 / 2,000

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<170

4% market probability

4%

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0 / 2,000

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