Resolved Polymarket

GPT-5.6 released by...?

Top outcomes

July 9 100%
July 10 100%
July 13 100%
July 15 100%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

$4.3M Vol. Closes Jul 31, 2026
Resolved outcome: July 31

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$4.3m Vol.

All outcomes

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$4.3M Vol.

July 9

100% market probability

100%
Yes 100% +0 / −100 No 0% +100 / −0

July 10

100% market probability

100%
Yes 100% +0 / −100 No 0% +100 / −0

July 13

100% market probability

100%
Yes 100% +0 / −100 No 0% +100 / −0

July 15

100% market probability

100%
Yes 100% +0 / −100 No 0% +100 / −0

July 17

100% market probability

100%
Yes 100% +0 / −100 No 0% +100 / −0

July 24

100% market probability

100%
Yes 100% +0 / −100 No 0% +100 / −0

July 31

100% market probability

100%
Yes 100% +0 / −100 No 0% +100 / −0

July 3

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

July 6

0% market probability

0%
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July 7

0% market probability

0%
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July 8

0% market probability

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June 5

0% market probability

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June 8

0% market probability

0%
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May 15

0% market probability

0%
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May 22

0% market probability

0%
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May 31

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

June 15

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

June 23

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

June 26

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

June 30

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
Forecasts are closed because this market is no longer accepting forecasts.

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