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GPT-5.6 released by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

$253K Vol. Closes Jul 31, 2026

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$252.5k Vol.

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Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$253K Vol.

July 31

93% market probability

93%
Yes 93% +7 / −93 No 7% +93 / −7

June 30

86% market probability

86%
Yes 86% +14 / −86 No 14% +86 / −14

June 15

68% market probability

68%
Yes 68% +32 / −68 No 31% +69 / −31

June 8

39% market probability

39%
Yes 39% +61 / −39 No 61% +39 / −61

June 5

28% market probability

28%
Yes 28% +72 / −28 No 72% +28 / −72

May 31

14% market probability

14%
Yes 14% +86 / −14 No 86% +14 / −86
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