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Polymarket
Elon Musk # tweets September 3 - September 5, 2026?
Top outcomes
40-64
51%
65-89
24%
<40
18%
90-114
6%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 3 12:00 PM ET to September 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
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$7K Vol.
Closes Sep 5, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$6.6k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$7K Vol.
40-64
51% market probability
51%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 51%
+49 / −51
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 49%
+51 / −49
65-89
24% market probability
24%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 24%
+76 / −24
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 76%
+24 / −76
Explain your Yes on 65-89
Explain your No on 65-89
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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<40
18% market probability
18%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 18%
+82 / −18
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 82%
+18 / −82
Explain your Yes on <40
Explain your No on <40
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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90-114
6% market probability
6%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 94%
+6 / −94
Explain your Yes on 90-114
Explain your No on 90-114
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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115-139
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on 115-139
Explain your No on 115-139
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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140-164
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on 140-164
Explain your No on 140-164
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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165-189
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on 165-189
Explain your No on 165-189
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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190-214
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on 190-214
Explain your No on 190-214
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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240+
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on 240+
Explain your No on 240+
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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215-239
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on 215-239
Explain your No on 215-239
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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