Open Economy Polymarket

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?

Top outcomes

4.6-4.9% 58%
4.3-4.6% 40%
4.9-5.2% 1%
4.0-4.3% 0%

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html

$187K Vol. Closes Jul 16, 2026

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

$187.1k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$187K Vol.

4.6-4.9%

58% market probability

58%

Explain your Yes on 4.6-4.9% Explain your No on 4.6-4.9% (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

4.3-4.6%

40% market probability

40%

Explain your Yes on 4.3-4.6% Explain your No on 4.3-4.6% (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

4.9-5.2%

1% market probability

1%

Explain your Yes on 4.9-5.2% Explain your No on 4.9-5.2% (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

4.0-4.3%

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on 4.0-4.3% Explain your No on 4.0-4.3% (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

5.2-5.5%

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on 5.2-5.5% Explain your No on 5.2-5.5% (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

6.1%+

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on 6.1%+ Explain your No on 6.1%+ (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

<4.0%

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on <4.0% Explain your No on <4.0% (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

5.5-5.8%

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on 5.5-5.8% Explain your No on 5.5-5.8% (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

5.8-6.1%

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on 5.8-6.1% Explain your No on 5.8-6.1% (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.