Open Polymarket

Best Chinese AI Company end of July?

Top outcomes

Alibaba 96%
Z.ai 2%
DeepSeek 1%
Baidu 1%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

$158K Vol. Closes Jul 31, 2026

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

$158.4k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$158K Vol.

Alibaba

96% market probability

96%

Explain your Yes on Alibaba Explain your No on Alibaba (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Z.ai

2% market probability

2%

Explain your Yes on Z.ai Explain your No on Z.ai (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

DeepSeek

1% market probability

1%

Explain your Yes on DeepSeek Explain your No on DeepSeek (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Baidu

1% market probability

1%

Explain your Yes on Baidu Explain your No on Baidu (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Moonshot

1% market probability

1%

Explain your Yes on Moonshot Explain your No on Moonshot (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

MiniMax

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on MiniMax Explain your No on MiniMax (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Xiaomi

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on Xiaomi Explain your No on Xiaomi (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Tencent

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on Tencent Explain your No on Tencent (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

ByteDance

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on ByteDance Explain your No on ByteDance (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Meituan

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on Meituan Explain your No on Meituan (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

StepFun

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on StepFun Explain your No on StepFun (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.