Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Los Angeles Mayoral Election NBA: 2026-27 Rookie of the Year Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion Will MetaMask launch a token by ___ ? Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? Will US withdraw from NATO by...? Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? MLB World Series Champion 2026 When will Bitcoin hit $150k? Which companies will be acquired before 2027? Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...? Presidential Election Winner 2028 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Los Angeles Mayoral Election NBA: 2026-27 Rookie of the Year Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion Will MetaMask launch a token by ___ ? Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? Will US withdraw from NATO by...? Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? MLB World Series Champion 2026 When will Bitcoin hit $150k? Which companies will be acquired before 2027? Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...? Presidential Election Winner 2028 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Open Crypto Polymarket

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Top outcomes

$500M 56%
$1B 52%
$2B 40%
$3B 38%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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$735K Vol. Closes Jan 1, 2028

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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$734.6k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$735K Vol.

$500M

56% market probability

56%

Explain your Yes on $500M Explain your No on $500M (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

$1B

52% market probability

52%

Explain your Yes on $1B Explain your No on $1B (optional)

0 / 2,000

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$2B

40% market probability

40%

Explain your Yes on $2B Explain your No on $2B (optional)

0 / 2,000

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$3B

38% market probability

38%

Explain your Yes on $3B Explain your No on $3B (optional)

0 / 2,000

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$4B

34% market probability

34%

Explain your Yes on $4B Explain your No on $4B (optional)

0 / 2,000

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$5B

32% market probability

32%

Explain your Yes on $5B Explain your No on $5B (optional)

0 / 2,000

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$6B

30% market probability

30%

Explain your Yes on $6B Explain your No on $6B (optional)

0 / 2,000

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$8B

28% market probability

28%

Explain your Yes on $8B Explain your No on $8B (optional)

0 / 2,000

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$12B

19% market probability

19%

Explain your Yes on $12B Explain your No on $12B (optional)

0 / 2,000

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$10B

16% market probability

16%

Explain your Yes on $10B Explain your No on $10B (optional)

0 / 2,000

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Public forecast history

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