Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

October 31 2% Yes No
August 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$270K Vol.
Polymarket

Houthi military action against Israel by...?

December 31 22% Yes No
October 31 5% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$253K Vol.
Polymarket

US x China Military clash before 2027?

No 98%
Yes 2%
$219K Vol.
Polymarket

Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

October 31 1% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$210K Vol.
Polymarket

Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

October 31 1% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$201K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?

December 31 21% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$194K Vol.
Polymarket

Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

Audias Flores-Silva 100% Yes No
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco 21% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$191K Vol.
Polymarket

Another NATO article 4 by...?

December 31 24% Yes No
October 31 5% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$186K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by...?

December 31 16% Yes No
September 30 0% Yes No
$171K Vol.
Polymarket

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

No 95%
Yes 5%
$169K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Kupiansk by...?

December 31 7% Yes No
September 30 0% Yes No
$166K Vol.
Polymarket

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

October 2 100% Yes No
October 3 100% Yes No

+28 more outcomes

$162K Vol.
Polymarket

Israel military action against Syria by...?

November 30 15% Yes No
October 31 6% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$160K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?

December 31 38% Yes No
September 30 0% Yes No
$155K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...?

October 31 2% Yes No
August 31 0% Yes No
$153K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...?

December 31 72% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$149K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Iran target Qatar by...?

October 31 3% Yes No
August 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$146K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by...?

December 31 28% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$145K Vol.
Polymarket

Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?

October 31 6% Yes No
September 15 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$145K Vol.
Polymarket

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

October 31 18% Yes No
October 15 0% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$135K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Stavky by...?

December 31 8% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$134K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by...?

December 31 6% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No
$129K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Prymorske by...?

December 31 6% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$129K Vol.
Polymarket

UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

No 95%
Yes 5%
$122K Vol.
Polymarket