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#3 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
Top outcomes
Other
50%
Company A
50%
Company B
50%
Company C
50%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
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$73K Vol.
Closes Oct 1, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$72.6k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$73K Vol.
Other
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Company A
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Company A
Explain your No on Company A
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Company B
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Company B
Explain your No on Company B
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Company C
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Company C
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Company D
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Company D
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Company E
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Company E
Explain your No on Company E
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Company F
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Company F
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Company G
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Company G
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Company H
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Company H
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Company I
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Company I
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Company K
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Company K
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Google
38% market probability
38%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 38%
+62 / −38
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 62%
+38 / −62
Explain your Yes on Google
Explain your No on Google
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Moonshot
24% market probability
24%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 24%
+76 / −24
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 76%
+24 / −76
Explain your Yes on Moonshot
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Meta
18% market probability
18%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 18%
+82 / −18
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 82%
+18 / −82
Explain your Yes on Meta
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Z.ai
11% market probability
11%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 11%
+89 / −11
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 89%
+11 / −89
Explain your Yes on Z.ai
Explain your No on Z.ai
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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OpenAI
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
Explain your Yes on OpenAI
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Alibaba
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on Alibaba
Explain your No on Alibaba
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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ByteDance
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on ByteDance
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Anthropic
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Anthropic
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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SpaceXAI
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on SpaceXAI
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Baidu
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Baidu
Explain your No on Baidu
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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DeepSeek
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on DeepSeek
Explain your No on DeepSeek
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Mistral
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Mistral
Explain your No on Mistral
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Tencent
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Tencent
Explain your No on Tencent
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Microsoft
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Microsoft
Explain your No on Microsoft
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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MiniMax
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on MiniMax
Explain your No on MiniMax
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Amazon
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Amazon
Explain your No on Amazon
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Nvidia
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-27']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-27']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Nvidia
Explain your No on Nvidia
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Thinky
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-28']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-28']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Thinky
Explain your No on Thinky
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Xiaomi
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-29']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-29']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Xiaomi
Explain your No on Xiaomi
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Meituan
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-30']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-30']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Meituan
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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StepFun
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-31']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-31']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on StepFun
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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