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World Cup: USA Stage of Elimination
Top outcomes
Other
50%
Round of 16
30%
Round of 32
30%
Quarterfinals
19%
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which USA is eliminated. If USA wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'.
If USA is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by USA based on the best available official information.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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$31K Vol.
Closes Jul 19, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$30.8k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$31K Vol.
Other
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Round of 16
30% market probability
30%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 30%
+70 / −30
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 70%
+30 / −70
Explain your Yes on Round of 16
Explain your No on Round of 16
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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Round of 32
30% market probability
30%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 30%
+70 / −30
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 70%
+30 / −70
Explain your Yes on Round of 32
Explain your No on Round of 32
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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Quarterfinals
19% market probability
19%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 19%
+81 / −19
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 81%
+19 / −81
Explain your Yes on Quarterfinals
Explain your No on Quarterfinals
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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Semifinals
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on Semifinals
Explain your No on Semifinals
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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Group Stage
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on Group Stage
Explain your No on Group Stage
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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Final
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Final
Explain your No on Final
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Champion
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Champion
Explain your No on Champion
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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Public forecast history
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