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Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
Top outcomes
July 1
99%
July 4
94%
July 7
94%
July 6
93%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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$17K Vol.
Closes Jul 31, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$17.4k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$17K Vol.
July 1
99% market probability
99%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 99%
+1 / −99
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 1%
+99 / −1
July 4
94% market probability
94%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 94%
+6 / −94
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 6%
+94 / −6
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 7
94% market probability
94%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 94%
+6 / −94
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 6%
+94 / −6
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 6
93% market probability
93%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 93%
+7 / −93
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 7%
+93 / −7
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0 / 2,000
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July 11
93% market probability
93%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 93%
+7 / −93
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 7%
+93 / −7
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 2
92% market probability
92%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 92%
+8 / −92
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 7%
+93 / −7
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 3
92% market probability
92%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 92%
+8 / −92
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 7%
+93 / −7
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0 / 2,000
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July 8
92% market probability
92%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 92%
+8 / −92
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 7%
+93 / −7
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0 / 2,000
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July 9
92% market probability
92%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 92%
+8 / −92
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 7%
+93 / −7
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 13
92% market probability
92%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 92%
+8 / −92
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 8%
+92 / −8
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0 / 2,000
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July 21
92% market probability
92%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 92%
+8 / −92
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 8%
+92 / −8
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0 / 2,000
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July 28
92% market probability
92%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 92%
+8 / −92
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 8%
+92 / −8
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0 / 2,000
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July 10
92% market probability
92%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 92%
+8 / −92
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 8%
+92 / −8
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 18
92% market probability
92%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 92%
+8 / −92
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 8%
+92 / −8
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 20
92% market probability
92%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 92%
+8 / −92
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 8%
+92 / −8
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 25
92% market probability
92%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 92%
+8 / −92
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 8%
+92 / −8
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 27
92% market probability
92%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 92%
+8 / −92
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 8%
+92 / −8
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 31
92% market probability
92%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 92%
+8 / −92
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 8%
+92 / −8
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 14
91% market probability
91%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 91%
+9 / −91
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 9%
+91 / −9
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 15
91% market probability
91%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 91%
+9 / −91
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 9%
+91 / −9
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 17
91% market probability
91%
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
Yes 91%
+9 / −91
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
No 9%
+91 / −9
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 30
91% market probability
91%
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
Yes 91%
+9 / −91
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
No 9%
+91 / −9
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 16
90% market probability
90%
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
Yes 90%
+10 / −90
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
No 9%
+91 / −9
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 22
90% market probability
90%
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
Yes 90%
+10 / −90
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
No 9%
+91 / −9
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 23
90% market probability
90%
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
Yes 90%
+10 / −90
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
No 9%
+91 / −9
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 24
90% market probability
90%
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
Yes 90%
+10 / −90
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
No 9%
+91 / −9
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 29
90% market probability
90%
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
Yes 90%
+10 / −90
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
No 9%
+91 / −9
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 5
90% market probability
90%
$refs['reasoning-27']?.focus())"
>
Yes 90%
+10 / −90
$refs['reasoning-27']?.focus())"
>
No 10%
+90 / −10
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 12
90% market probability
90%
$refs['reasoning-28']?.focus())"
>
Yes 90%
+10 / −90
$refs['reasoning-28']?.focus())"
>
No 10%
+90 / −10
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 19
90% market probability
90%
$refs['reasoning-29']?.focus())"
>
Yes 90%
+10 / −90
$refs['reasoning-29']?.focus())"
>
No 10%
+90 / −10
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Explain your No on July 19
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 26
90% market probability
90%
$refs['reasoning-30']?.focus())"
>
Yes 90%
+10 / −90
$refs['reasoning-30']?.focus())"
>
No 10%
+90 / −10
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Explain your No on July 26
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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