Open
Polymarket
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
Top outcomes
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate
62%
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate
32%
Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate
3%
Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate
2%
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.
$126K Vol.
Closes Nov 4, 2026