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Who will Trump speak to by October 31?
Top outcomes
Elon Musk
100%
Mark Carney
100%
Vladimir Putin
100%
Emmanuel Macron
100%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered.
Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question.
This market will resolve at the earlier of i) a qualifying verbal interaction being confirmed under the above rules or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe.
If the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
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$214K Vol.
Closes Nov 1, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$213.7k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$214K Vol.
Elon Musk
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Mark Carney
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Mark Carney
Explain your No on Mark Carney
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Vladimir Putin
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Vladimir Putin
Explain your No on Vladimir Putin
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Emmanuel Macron
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Emmanuel Macron
Explain your No on Emmanuel Macron
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Mohammed bin Salman
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Mohammed bin Salman
Explain your No on Mohammed bin Salman
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Ursula von der Leyen
97% market probability
97%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 97%
+3 / −97
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 3%
+97 / −3
Explain your Yes on Ursula von der Leyen
Explain your No on Ursula von der Leyen
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Friedrich Merz
95% market probability
95%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 95%
+5 / −95
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 5%
+95 / −5
Explain your Yes on Friedrich Merz
Explain your No on Friedrich Merz
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Mark Rutte
60% market probability
60%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 60%
+40 / −60
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 40%
+60 / −40
Explain your Yes on Mark Rutte
Explain your No on Mark Rutte
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy
56% market probability
56%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 56%
+44 / −56
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 44%
+56 / −44
Explain your Yes on Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Explain your No on Volodymyr Zelenskyy
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Ahmed al-Sharaa
39% market probability
39%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 39%
+61 / −39
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 61%
+39 / −61
Explain your Yes on Ahmed al-Sharaa
Explain your No on Ahmed al-Sharaa
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Andy Burnham
38% market probability
38%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 38%
+62 / −38
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 62%
+38 / −62
Explain your Yes on Andy Burnham
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Lula da Silva
32% market probability
32%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 32%
+68 / −32
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 68%
+32 / −68
Explain your Yes on Lula da Silva
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Reza Pahlavi
9% market probability
9%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 9%
+91 / −9
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 91%
+9 / −91
Explain your Yes on Reza Pahlavi
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Xi Jinping
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on Xi Jinping
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Pope Leo XIV
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on Pope Leo XIV
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Kim Jong Un
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on Kim Jong Un
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Maria Corina Machado
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on Maria Corina Machado
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Masoud Pezeshkian
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on Masoud Pezeshkian
Explain your No on Masoud Pezeshkian
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Yoon Suk Yeol
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Yoon Suk Yeol
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Miguel Díaz-Canel
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Miguel Díaz-Canel
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Mojtaba Khamenei
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Mojtaba Khamenei
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Nicolás Maduro
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Nicolás Maduro
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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