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Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30?

Top outcomes

Joe Biden 100%
James Talarico 100%
Nicolás Maduro 100%
Barack Obama 97%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.

$31K Vol. Closes Sep 30, 2026

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$30.5k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$31K Vol.

Joe Biden

100% market probability

100%

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0 / 2,000

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James Talarico

100% market probability

100%

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0 / 2,000

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Nicolás Maduro

100% market probability

100%

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Barack Obama

97% market probability

97%

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0 / 2,000

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Kathy Hochul

92% market probability

92%

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0 / 2,000

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Mark Carney

78% market probability

78%

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0 / 2,000

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Letitia James

76% market probability

76%

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0 / 2,000

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

69% market probability

69%

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0 / 2,000

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Tucker Carlson

68% market probability

68%

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0 / 2,000

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Hillary Clinton

64% market probability

64%

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0 / 2,000

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Adam Schiff

52% market probability

52%

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0 / 2,000

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J.B. Pritzker

51% market probability

51%

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0 / 2,000

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Ilhan Omar

50% market probability

50%

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0 / 2,000

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Abdul El-Sayed

50% market probability

50%

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0 / 2,000

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Jimmy Kimmel

49% market probability

49%

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0 / 2,000

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Elizabeth Warren

49% market probability

49%

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Elon Musk

48% market probability

48%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

48% market probability

48%

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Megyn Kelly

38% market probability

38%

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Jon Ossoff

36% market probability

36%

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Zohran Mamdani

34% market probability

34%

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0 / 2,000

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Andy Burnham

29% market probability

29%

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Jerome Powell

24% market probability

24%

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Kaitlan Collins

24% market probability

24%

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Stephen Colbert

22% market probability

22%

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Emmanuel Macron

18% market probability

18%

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Candace Owens

16% market probability

16%

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Vladimir Putin

16% market probability

16%

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0 / 2,000

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Friedrich Merz

12% market probability

12%

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Benjamin Netanyahu

12% market probability

12%

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Alex Jones

12% market probability

12%

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Norah O'Donnell

10% market probability

10%

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0 / 2,000

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Xi Jinping

8% market probability

8%

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Kevin Warsh

8% market probability

8%

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Pope Leo XIV

6% market probability

6%

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0 / 2,000

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Pam Bondi

5% market probability

5%

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J.D. Vance

4% market probability

4%

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0 / 2,000

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Karoline Leavitt

3% market probability

3%

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0 / 2,000

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Mohammed bin Salman

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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Melania Trump

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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