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Economy
Polymarket
Which companies will the US take a stake in?
Top outcomes
GlobalFoundries
84%
D-Wave
70%
Rigetti
66%
Unusual Machines
50%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify.
An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
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$145K Vol.
Closes Dec 31, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$144.5k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$145K Vol.
GlobalFoundries
84% market probability
84%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 84%
+16 / −84
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 16%
+84 / −16
D-Wave
70% market probability
70%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 70%
+30 / −70
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 30%
+70 / −30
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0 / 2,000
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Rigetti
66% market probability
66%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 66%
+34 / −66
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 34%
+66 / −34
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0 / 2,000
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Unusual Machines
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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0 / 2,000
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OpenAI
28% market probability
28%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 28%
+72 / −28
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 72%
+28 / −72
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0 / 2,000
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Lockheed Martin
20% market probability
20%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 80%
+20 / −80
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0 / 2,000
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Boeing
19% market probability
19%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 19%
+81 / −19
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 81%
+19 / −81
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0 / 2,000
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Micron
16% market probability
16%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 84%
+16 / −84
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0 / 2,000
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TSMC
16% market probability
16%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 84%
+16 / −84
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0 / 2,000
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Anthropic
15% market probability
15%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 15%
+85 / −15
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 85%
+15 / −85
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0 / 2,000
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IonQ
13% market probability
13%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 13%
+87 / −13
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 87%
+13 / −87
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0 / 2,000
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Anduril
12% market probability
12%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 88%
+12 / −88
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0 / 2,000
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Eli Lilly
12% market probability
12%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 88%
+12 / −88
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0 / 2,000
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Pfizer
11% market probability
11%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 11%
+89 / −11
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 89%
+11 / −89
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0 / 2,000
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TikTok US / Bytedance
11% market probability
11%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 11%
+89 / −11
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 89%
+11 / −89
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0 / 2,000
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Nvidia
10% market probability
10%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 90%
+10 / −90
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0 / 2,000
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SpaceX
10% market probability
10%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 90%
+10 / −90
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0 / 2,000
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Palantir
10% market probability
10%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 90%
+10 / −90
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0 / 2,000
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Freeport-McMoRan
10% market probability
10%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 90%
+10 / −90
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0 / 2,000
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Samsung Electronics
9% market probability
9%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 9%
+91 / −9
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 91%
+9 / −91
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0 / 2,000
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