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Economy
Polymarket
Which companies will the US take a stake in?
Top outcomes
D-Wave
100%
Rigetti
100%
GlobalFoundries
100%
Unusual Machines
36%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify.
An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
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$216K Vol.
Closes Jan 1, 2027
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$216.3k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$216K Vol.
D-Wave
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Rigetti
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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GlobalFoundries
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
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Explain your No on GlobalFoundries
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Unusual Machines
36% market probability
36%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 36%
+64 / −36
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 64%
+36 / −64
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0 / 2,000
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Anduril
16% market probability
16%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 84%
+16 / −84
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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TSMC
13% market probability
13%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 13%
+87 / −13
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 87%
+13 / −87
Explain your Yes on TSMC
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0 / 2,000
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Nvidia
12% market probability
12%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 88%
+12 / −88
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Anthropic
11% market probability
11%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 11%
+89 / −11
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 89%
+11 / −89
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Lockheed Martin
11% market probability
11%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 11%
+89 / −11
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 89%
+11 / −89
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Eli Lilly
11% market probability
11%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 11%
+89 / −11
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 89%
+11 / −89
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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IonQ
10% market probability
10%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 90%
+10 / −90
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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OpenAI
10% market probability
10%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 90%
+10 / −90
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Micron
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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SpaceX
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Freeport-McMoRan
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on Freeport-McMoRan
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Boeing
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Palantir
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
Explain your Yes on Palantir
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Pfizer
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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TikTok US / Bytedance
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
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0 / 2,000
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Samsung Electronics
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on Samsung Electronics
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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