Open Economy Polymarket

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.

$95K Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

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$95.3k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$95K Vol.

D-Wave

88% market probability

88%
Yes 88% +12 / −88 No 12% +88 / −12

Rigetti

82% market probability

82%
Yes 82% +18 / −82 No 18% +82 / −18

GlobalFoundries

68% market probability

68%
Yes 68% +32 / −68 No 32% +68 / −32

IonQ

47% market probability

47%
Yes 47% +53 / −47 No 53% +47 / −53

Anduril

40% market probability

40%
Yes 40% +60 / −40 No 60% +40 / −60

TSMC

39% market probability

39%
Yes 39% +61 / −39 No 61% +39 / −61

Micron

38% market probability

38%
Yes 38% +62 / −38 No 62% +38 / −62

Eli Lilly

38% market probability

38%
Yes 38% +62 / −38 No 62% +38 / −62

Boeing

32% market probability

32%
Yes 32% +68 / −32 No 68% +32 / −68

Anthropic

30% market probability

30%
Yes 30% +70 / −30 No 70% +30 / −70

TikTok US / Bytedance

27% market probability

27%
Yes 27% +73 / −27 No 73% +27 / −73

Pfizer

26% market probability

26%
Yes 26% +74 / −26 No 74% +26 / −74

Palantir

22% market probability

22%
Yes 22% +78 / −22 No 78% +22 / −78

OpenAI

20% market probability

20%
Yes 20% +80 / −20 No 80% +20 / −80

Lockheed Martin

18% market probability

18%
Yes 18% +82 / −18 No 82% +18 / −82

Samsung Electronics

18% market probability

18%
Yes 18% +82 / −18 No 82% +18 / −82

Freeport-McMoRan

18% market probability

18%
Yes 18% +82 / −18 No 82% +18 / −82

Nvidia

17% market probability

17%
Yes 17% +83 / −17 No 83% +17 / −83
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