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Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner
Top outcomes
Christopher Nolan
65%
Other
50%
xxxxx
50%
Director H
50%
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed director who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Director.
If a director is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Director when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated director whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. Where an option lists more than one director, if one of the listed directors wins individually, or both listed options win jointly, that option will resolve to "Yes". If only one of the jointly listed directors is a joint winner with another individual (e.g., tied with a director from another option), only the winning listed director's last names will be considered for the purposes of alphabetical ordering. If both jointly listed directors win alongside one or more directors not listed in that option, all winning listed directors last names will be considered for the purposes of alphabetical ordering.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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$46K Vol.
Closes Jul 1, 2027
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$45.9k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$46K Vol.
Christopher Nolan
65% market probability
65%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 65%
+35 / −65
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 35%
+65 / −35
Other
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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xxxxx
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Director H
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Director J
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Director K
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Director L
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Director M
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Director N
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Director O
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Director P
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Director Q
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Director R
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Director S
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Director T
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Director U
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Director V
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Director W
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Director X
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Director Y
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Director Z
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi
15% market probability
15%
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
Yes 15%
+85 / −15
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
No 85%
+15 / −85
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Denis Villeneuve
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on Denis Villeneuve
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Peter Farrelly
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Alejandro G. Iñárritu
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
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0 / 2,000
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Martin McDonagh
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on Martin McDonagh
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Phil Lord or Christopher Miller
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
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0 / 2,000
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Olivia Wilde
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-27']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-27']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
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0 / 2,000
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Lance Oppenheim
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-28']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-28']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Lance Oppenheim
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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David O. Russell
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-29']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-29']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on David O. Russell
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Jesse Eisenberg
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-30']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-30']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Jesse Eisenberg
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0 / 2,000
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Steven Spielberg
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-31']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-31']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Steven Spielberg
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Aaron Sorkin
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-32']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-32']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Cristian Mungiu
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-33']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-33']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Joel Coen
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-34']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-34']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Joel Coen
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Mike Leigh
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-35']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-35']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Mike Leigh
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Andrew Haigh
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-36']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-36']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Andrew Haigh
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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David Fincher
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-37']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-37']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on David Fincher
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Ryusuke Hamaguchi
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-38']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-38']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Ryusuke Hamaguchi
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Jordan Firstman
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-39']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-39']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Bassam Tariq
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-40']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-40']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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