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OpenAI’s Astra released by…?

Top outcomes

October 31 92%
September 30 84%
September 25 71%
September 15 57%

On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

$436K Vol. Closes Oct 31, 2026

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$436.1k Vol.

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$436K Vol.

October 31

92% market probability

92%

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September 30

84% market probability

84%

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September 25

71% market probability

71%

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September 15

57% market probability

57%

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September 3

24% market probability

24%

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September 4

24% market probability

24%

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September 9

24% market probability

24%

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September 11

24% market probability

24%

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September 2

24% market probability

24%

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August 15

0% market probability

0%

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August 31

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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