Which companies will be acquired before 2027? Iran leadership change by...? Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Trump out as President before 2027? Fed Decision in July? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Largest Company end of July? Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...? Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? MLS Cup Winner 2026 Russia nuclear test by...? Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...? F1 Constructors' Champion What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? Putin out as President of Russia by...? Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
Which companies will be acquired before 2027? Iran leadership change by...? Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Trump out as President before 2027? Fed Decision in July? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Largest Company end of July? Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...? Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? MLS Cup Winner 2026 Russia nuclear test by...? Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...? F1 Constructors' Champion What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? Putin out as President of Russia by...? Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
Open Polymarket

Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?

Top outcomes

Thorsten Frei 96%
Other 50%
[Placeholder 1] 50%
[Placeholder 2] 50%

On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/). This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn. Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify. If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.

View on Polymarket
$17K Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

$17.0k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$17K Vol.

Thorsten Frei

96% market probability

96%

Explain your Yes on Thorsten Frei Explain your No on Thorsten Frei (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Other

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on Other Explain your No on Other (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 1]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 1] Explain your No on [Placeholder 1] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 2]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 2] Explain your No on [Placeholder 2] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 3]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 3] Explain your No on [Placeholder 3] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 4]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 4] Explain your No on [Placeholder 4] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 5]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 5] Explain your No on [Placeholder 5] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 6]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 6] Explain your No on [Placeholder 6] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 7]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 7] Explain your No on [Placeholder 7] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 8]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 8] Explain your No on [Placeholder 8] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 9]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 9] Explain your No on [Placeholder 9] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 10]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 10] Explain your No on [Placeholder 10] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 11]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 11] Explain your No on [Placeholder 11] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 12]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 12] Explain your No on [Placeholder 12] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 13]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 13] Explain your No on [Placeholder 13] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 14]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 14] Explain your No on [Placeholder 14] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 15]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 15] Explain your No on [Placeholder 15] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 16]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 16] Explain your No on [Placeholder 16] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 17]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 17] Explain your No on [Placeholder 17] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 18]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 18] Explain your No on [Placeholder 18] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 19]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 19] Explain your No on [Placeholder 19] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 20]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 20] Explain your No on [Placeholder 20] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 21]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 21] Explain your No on [Placeholder 21] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 22]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 22] Explain your No on [Placeholder 22] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 23]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 23] Explain your No on [Placeholder 23] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 24]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 24] Explain your No on [Placeholder 24] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 25]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 25] Explain your No on [Placeholder 25] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

[Placeholder 26]

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on [Placeholder 26] Explain your No on [Placeholder 26] (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Alexander Hoffmann

1% market probability

1%

Explain your Yes on Alexander Hoffmann Explain your No on Alexander Hoffmann (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Carsten Linnemann

1% market probability

1%

Explain your Yes on Carsten Linnemann Explain your No on Carsten Linnemann (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Nina Warken

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on Nina Warken Explain your No on Nina Warken (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Michael Brand

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on Michael Brand Explain your No on Michael Brand (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Alexander Dobrindt

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on Alexander Dobrindt Explain your No on Alexander Dobrindt (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Günter Krings

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on Günter Krings Explain your No on Günter Krings (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.