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Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by...?

Top outcomes

October 31 99%
September 30 95%
September 9 86%
September 11 86%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

$32K Vol. Closes Oct 31, 2026

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$32.2k Vol.

All outcomes

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$32K Vol.

October 31

99% market probability

99%

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0 / 2,000

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September 30

95% market probability

95%

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0 / 2,000

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September 9

86% market probability

86%

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0 / 2,000

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September 11

86% market probability

86%

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0 / 2,000

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September 15

85% market probability

85%

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0 / 2,000

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September 4

81% market probability

81%

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0 / 2,000

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September 2

78% market probability

78%

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0 / 2,000

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September 1

4% market probability

4%

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0 / 2,000

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August 31

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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