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Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

Top outcomes

June 30 11%
April 22 0%
April 30 0%
May 31 0%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

$7.5M Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

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$7.5m Vol.

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$7.5M Vol.

June 30

11% market probability

11%

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0 / 2,000

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April 22

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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April 30

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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May 31

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Torrentequimico @papezteguia@gmail.com · Verified record
Forecast No June 30 · Polymarket 93% · +7/−93

-5 rep if exited now

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