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Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
Top outcomes
August 29
55%
July 30
54%
August 21
50%
August 3
42%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$16.9k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$17K Vol.
August 29
55% market probability
55%
Yes 55%
+45 / −55
No 45%
+55 / −45
July 30
54% market probability
54%
Yes 54%
+46 / −54
No 46%
+54 / −46
August 21
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
August 3
42% market probability
42%
Yes 42%
+58 / −42
No 57%
+43 / −57
August 7
40% market probability
40%
Yes 40%
+60 / −40
No 60%
+40 / −60
August 24
40% market probability
40%
Yes 40%
+60 / −40
No 60%
+40 / −60
August 23
33% market probability
33%
Yes 33%
+67 / −33
No 67%
+33 / −67
July 26
32% market probability
32%
Yes 32%
+68 / −32
No 68%
+32 / −68
August 5
29% market probability
29%
Yes 29%
+71 / −29
No 71%
+29 / −71
August 19
28% market probability
28%
Yes 28%
+72 / −28
No 72%
+28 / −72
July 27
28% market probability
28%
Yes 28%
+72 / −28
No 72%
+28 / −72
July 28
27% market probability
27%
Yes 27%
+73 / −27
No 73%
+27 / −73
August 8
25% market probability
25%
Yes 25%
+75 / −25
No 75%
+25 / −75
August 22
25% market probability
25%
Yes 25%
+75 / −25
No 75%
+25 / −75
July 24
22% market probability
22%
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
No 78%
+22 / −78
August 15
21% market probability
21%
Yes 21%
+79 / −21
No 79%
+21 / −79
August 17
20% market probability
20%
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
No 80%
+20 / −80
August 6
19% market probability
19%
Yes 19%
+81 / −19
No 81%
+19 / −81
August 27
18% market probability
18%
Yes 18%
+82 / −18
No 82%
+18 / −82
July 25
16% market probability
16%
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
No 84%
+16 / −84
August 20
15% market probability
15%
Yes 15%
+85 / −15
No 85%
+15 / −85
August 4
14% market probability
14%
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
No 86%
+14 / −86
August 31
14% market probability
14%
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
No 86%
+14 / −86
July 29
14% market probability
14%
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
No 86%
+14 / −86
July 31
13% market probability
13%
Yes 13%
+87 / −13
No 87%
+13 / −87
August 2
12% market probability
12%
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
No 88%
+12 / −88
August 12
12% market probability
12%
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
No 88%
+12 / −88
August 11
12% market probability
12%
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
No 88%
+12 / −88
August 25
12% market probability
12%
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
No 88%
+12 / −88
August 13
12% market probability
12%
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
No 88%
+12 / −88
August 18
12% market probability
12%
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
No 88%
+12 / −88
August 1
11% market probability
11%
Yes 11%
+89 / −11
No 89%
+11 / −89
August 16
11% market probability
11%
Yes 11%
+89 / −11
No 89%
+11 / −89
August 26
11% market probability
11%
Yes 11%
+89 / −11
No 89%
+11 / −89
August 10
11% market probability
11%
Yes 11%
+89 / −11
No 89%
+11 / −89
August 14
10% market probability
10%
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
No 90%
+10 / −90
August 28
10% market probability
10%
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
No 90%
+10 / −90
August 30
10% market probability
10%
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
No 90%
+10 / −90
August 9
9% market probability
9%
Yes 9%
+91 / −9
No 91%
+9 / −91
Public forecast history
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