Resolved Polymarket

Grok 4.4 released by...?

Top outcomes

July 8 100%
July 10 100%
July 17 100%
July 31 100%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

$198K Vol. Closes Aug 31, 2026
Resolved outcome: August 31

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$198.3k Vol.

All outcomes

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$198K Vol.

July 8

100% market probability

100%
Yes 100% +0 / −100 No 0% +100 / −0

July 10

100% market probability

100%
Yes 100% +0 / −100 No 0% +100 / −0

July 17

100% market probability

100%
Yes 100% +0 / −100 No 0% +100 / −0

July 31

100% market probability

100%
Yes 100% +0 / −100 No 0% +100 / −0

August 31

100% market probability

100%
Yes 100% +0 / −100 No 0% +100 / −0

May 31

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

June 15

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

June 30

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
Forecasts are closed because this market is no longer accepting forecasts.

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