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Gemini 4.0 released by...?

Top outcomes

November 30 88%
October 31 66%
September 30 32%
September 15 7%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

$351K Vol. Closes Dec 1, 2026

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$350.8k Vol.

All outcomes

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$351K Vol.

November 30

88% market probability

88%

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0 / 2,000

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October 31

66% market probability

66%

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0 / 2,000

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September 30

32% market probability

32%

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0 / 2,000

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September 15

7% market probability

7%

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0 / 2,000

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July 31

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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June 30

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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August 31

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on August 31 Explain your No on August 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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