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Pop Culture
Polymarket
Elon Musk # tweets June 29 - July 1, 2026?
Top outcomes
40-64
54%
65-89
30%
<40
12%
90-114
5%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 29 12:00 PM ET to July 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
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$32K Vol.
Closes Jul 1, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$32.3k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$32K Vol.
40-64
54% market probability
54%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 54%
+46 / −54
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 46%
+54 / −46
65-89
30% market probability
30%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 30%
+70 / −30
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 70%
+30 / −70
Explain your Yes on 65-89
Explain your No on 65-89
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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<40
12% market probability
12%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 88%
+12 / −88
Explain your Yes on <40
Explain your No on <40
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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90-114
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on 90-114
Explain your No on 90-114
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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115-139
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on 115-139
Explain your No on 115-139
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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140-164
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on 140-164
Explain your No on 140-164
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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165-189
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on 165-189
Explain your No on 165-189
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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240+
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on 240+
Explain your No on 240+
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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190-214
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on 190-214
Explain your No on 190-214
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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215-239
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on 215-239
Explain your No on 215-239
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
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