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Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio de Janeiro
Top outcomes
Flavio Bolsonaro
84%
Other
50%
Candidate A
50%
Candidate B
50%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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$20K Vol.
Closes Oct 4, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$19.7k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$20K Vol.
Flavio Bolsonaro
84% market probability
84%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 84%
+16 / −84
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 17%
+83 / −17
Other
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Other
Explain your No on Other
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate A
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Candidate A
Explain your No on Candidate A
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate B
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate C
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate D
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate E
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Candidate E
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate F
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate G
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Candidate G
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate H
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate I
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate J
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate K
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate L
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate M
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate N
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate O
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate P
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate Q
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate R
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate S
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate T
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate U
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Candidate U
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate V
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Candidate V
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate W
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Candidate W
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate X
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate Y
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Candidate Z
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-27']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-27']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Candidate Z
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Lula
16% market probability
16%
$refs['reasoning-28']?.focus())"
>
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
$refs['reasoning-28']?.focus())"
>
No 84%
+16 / −84
Explain your Yes on Lula
Explain your No on Lula
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Zema
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-29']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-29']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Zema
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Samara
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-30']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-30']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Samara
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Hertz Dias
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-31']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-31']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Hertz Dias
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Renan Santos
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-32']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-32']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Renan Santos
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Pablo Marçal
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-33']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-33']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Pablo Marçal
Explain your No on Pablo Marçal
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Clariana Barao
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-34']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-34']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Clariana Barao
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Edmilson Costa
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-35']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-35']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Edmilson Costa
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Ronaldo Caiado
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-36']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-36']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Rui Costa Pimenta
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-37']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-37']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Escritor Augusto Cury
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-38']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-38']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Escritor Augusto Cury
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Veterinário Wilson Grassi
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-39']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-39']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Veterinário Wilson Grassi
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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