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Best AI model on June 13?

Top outcomes

claude-opus-4-6-thinking 77%
Other 21%
claude-opus-4-6 1%
gemini-3.5-flash 0%

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

$41K Vol. Closes Jun 13, 2026

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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$41.3k Vol.

All outcomes

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$41K Vol.

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

77% market probability

77%
Yes 77% +23 / −77 No 23% +77 / −23

Other

21% market probability

21%
Yes 21% +79 / −21 No 79% +21 / −79

claude-opus-4-6

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

gemini-3.5-flash

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

gemini-3.1-pro-preview

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

claude-opus-4-7-thinking

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
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