Forecasts closed Politics Polymarket

Another US strike on Venezuela by...?

Top outcomes

December 31 20%
March 31 0%
January 10 0%
January 17 0%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

$2.5M Vol. Closed Jan 31, 2026

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$2.5m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$2.5M Vol.

December 31

20% market probability

20%
Yes 20% +80 / −20 No 80% +20 / −80

March 31

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

January 10

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

January 17

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

January 31

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
Forecasts are closed because this market is no longer accepting forecasts.

Public forecast history

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No forecasts were placed before this market closed.