Open
Sports
Polymarket
World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages
Top outcomes
Spain
98%
Brazil
98%
France
97%
England
97%
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$1.3m Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$1.3M Vol.
Spain
98% market probability
98%
Yes 98%
+2 / −98
No 2%
+98 / −2
Brazil
98% market probability
98%
Yes 98%
+2 / −98
No 2%
+98 / −2
France
97% market probability
97%
Yes 97%
+3 / −97
No 3%
+97 / −3
England
97% market probability
97%
Yes 97%
+3 / −97
No 3%
+97 / −3
Portugal
96% market probability
96%
Yes 96%
+4 / −96
No 4%
+96 / −4
Germany
96% market probability
96%
Yes 96%
+4 / −96
No 4%
+96 / −4
Argentina
96% market probability
96%
Yes 96%
+4 / −96
No 4%
+96 / −4
Belgium
96% market probability
96%
Yes 96%
+4 / −96
No 4%
+96 / −4
Switzerland
94% market probability
94%
Yes 94%
+6 / −94
No 6%
+94 / −6
Mexico
92% market probability
92%
Yes 92%
+8 / −92
No 7%
+93 / −7
Colombia
90% market probability
90%
Yes 90%
+10 / −90
No 10%
+90 / −10
Netherlands
90% market probability
90%
Yes 90%
+10 / −90
No 10%
+90 / −10
Ecuador
88% market probability
88%
Yes 88%
+12 / −88
No 12%
+88 / −12
Morocco
86% market probability
86%
Yes 86%
+14 / −86
No 14%
+86 / −14
Uruguay
86% market probability
86%
Yes 86%
+14 / −86
No 14%
+86 / −14
Canada
86% market probability
86%
Yes 86%
+14 / −86
No 15%
+85 / −15
Norway
86% market probability
86%
Yes 86%
+14 / −86
No 15%
+85 / −15
USA
84% market probability
84%
Yes 84%
+16 / −84
No 17%
+83 / −17
Croatia
82% market probability
82%
Yes 82%
+18 / −82
No 19%
+81 / −19
Austria
80% market probability
80%
Yes 80%
+20 / −80
No 19%
+81 / −19
Ivory Coast
80% market probability
80%
Yes 80%
+20 / −80
No 20%
+80 / −20
Turkiye
80% market probability
80%
Yes 80%
+20 / −80
No 20%
+80 / −20
Japan
78% market probability
78%
Yes 78%
+22 / −78
No 21%
+79 / −21
Egypt
72% market probability
72%
Yes 72%
+28 / −72
No 28%
+72 / −28
Senegal
71% market probability
71%
Yes 71%
+29 / −71
No 29%
+71 / −29
Czechia
70% market probability
70%
Yes 70%
+30 / −70
No 31%
+69 / −31
South Korea
70% market probability
70%
Yes 70%
+30 / −70
No 31%
+69 / −31
Scotland
68% market probability
68%
Yes 68%
+32 / −68
No 31%
+69 / −31
Algeria
66% market probability
66%
Yes 66%
+34 / −66
No 34%
+66 / −34
Bosnia and Herzegovina
66% market probability
66%
Yes 66%
+34 / −66
No 34%
+66 / −34
Paraguay
64% market probability
64%
Yes 64%
+36 / −64
No 36%
+64 / −36
Iran
62% market probability
62%
Yes 62%
+38 / −62
No 38%
+62 / −38
Sweden
62% market probability
62%
Yes 62%
+38 / −62
No 38%
+62 / −38
Ghana
48% market probability
48%
Yes 48%
+52 / −48
No 52%
+48 / −52
Australia
48% market probability
48%
Yes 48%
+52 / −48
No 52%
+48 / −52
DR Congo
42% market probability
42%
Yes 42%
+58 / −42
No 57%
+43 / −57
Tunisia
38% market probability
38%
Yes 38%
+62 / −38
No 62%
+38 / −62
South Africa
38% market probability
38%
Yes 38%
+62 / −38
No 62%
+38 / −62
Panama
36% market probability
36%
Yes 36%
+64 / −36
No 64%
+36 / −64
Saudi Arabia
36% market probability
36%
Yes 36%
+64 / −36
No 64%
+36 / −64
Uzbekistan
34% market probability
34%
Yes 34%
+66 / −34
No 66%
+34 / −66
New Zealand
32% market probability
32%
Yes 32%
+68 / −32
No 68%
+32 / −68
Cape Verde
30% market probability
30%
Yes 30%
+70 / −30
No 70%
+30 / −70
Qatar
22% market probability
22%
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
No 78%
+22 / −78
Jordan
20% market probability
20%
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
No 80%
+20 / −80
Iraq
14% market probability
14%
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
No 86%
+14 / −86
Haiti
12% market probability
12%
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
No 88%
+12 / −88
Curacao
8% market probability
8%
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
No 92%
+8 / −92
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