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Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch? Which party will win the House in 2026? Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Russia nuclear test by...? Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...? California Governor Election Winner New "Stranger Things" episode released by...? Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? 2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis) Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch? Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? When will Bitcoin hit $150k? Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis) How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026? NBA: 2026-27 Rookie of the Year
Open Polymarket

Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?

Top outcomes

December 31, 2026 8%
June 30, 2027 6%
September 30, 2026 6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Thomas or one of his official representatives.

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$11K Vol. Closes Jul 1, 2027

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$10.6k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$11K Vol.

December 31, 2026

8% market probability

8%

Explain your Yes on December 31, 2026 Explain your No on December 31, 2026 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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June 30, 2027

6% market probability

6%

Explain your Yes on June 30, 2027 Explain your No on June 30, 2027 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

September 30, 2026

6% market probability

6%

Explain your Yes on September 30, 2026 Explain your No on September 30, 2026 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

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