Will Arc launch a token by ___ ?

Top outcomes

December 31, 2027 84%

June 30, 2027 84%

December 31, 2026 52%

September 30, 2026 28%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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$166K Vol. Closes Jan 1, 2028

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$166.2k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$166K Vol.

December 31, 2027

84% market probability

84%

Yes 84% +16 / −84 No 16% +84 / −16

June 30, 2027

84% market probability

84%

Yes 84% +16 / −84 No 17% +83 / −17

December 31, 2026

52% market probability

52%

Yes 52% +48 / −52 No 48% +52 / −48

September 30, 2026

28% market probability

28%

Yes 28% +72 / −28 No 72% +28 / −72

June 30, 2026

3% market probability

Yes 3% +97 / −3 No 97% +3 / −97

March 31, 2026

0% market probability

Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

December 31, 2025

0% market probability

Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Public forecast history

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