Open
Polymarket
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
Top outcomes
Rand Paul
42%
Kirsten Gillibrand
34%
Thom Tillis
32%
Mike Lee
28%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088
The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment.
This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote.
Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally.
This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).
Read more
Show less
$55K Vol.
Closes Jan 1, 2027
Live Polymarket Chart
Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
Open on Polymarket ↗
The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.
$54.5k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$55K Vol.
Rand Paul
42% market probability
42%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 42%
+58 / −42
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 58%
+42 / −58
Kirsten Gillibrand
34% market probability
34%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 34%
+66 / −34
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 66%
+34 / −66
Explain your Yes on Kirsten Gillibrand
Explain your No on Kirsten Gillibrand
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Thom Tillis
32% market probability
32%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 32%
+68 / −32
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 68%
+32 / −68
Explain your Yes on Thom Tillis
Explain your No on Thom Tillis
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Mike Lee
28% market probability
28%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 28%
+72 / −28
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 72%
+28 / −72
Explain your Yes on Mike Lee
Explain your No on Mike Lee
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Catherine Cortez Masto
28% market probability
28%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 28%
+72 / −28
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 72%
+28 / −72
Explain your Yes on Catherine Cortez Masto
Explain your No on Catherine Cortez Masto
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Ruben Gallego
27% market probability
27%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 27%
+73 / −27
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 73%
+27 / −73
Explain your Yes on Ruben Gallego
Explain your No on Ruben Gallego
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Lisa Blunt Rochester
24% market probability
24%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 24%
+76 / −24
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 76%
+24 / −76
Explain your Yes on Lisa Blunt Rochester
Explain your No on Lisa Blunt Rochester
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Alex Padilla
22% market probability
22%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 78%
+22 / −78
Explain your Yes on Alex Padilla
Explain your No on Alex Padilla
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
John Fetterman
20% market probability
20%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 80%
+20 / −80
Explain your Yes on John Fetterman
Explain your No on John Fetterman
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Jacky Rosen
20% market probability
20%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 80%
+20 / −80
Explain your Yes on Jacky Rosen
Explain your No on Jacky Rosen
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Josh Hawley
19% market probability
19%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 19%
+81 / −19
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 81%
+19 / −81
Explain your Yes on Josh Hawley
Explain your No on Josh Hawley
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Raphael Warnock
17% market probability
17%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 17%
+83 / −17
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 83%
+17 / −83
Explain your Yes on Raphael Warnock
Explain your No on Raphael Warnock
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Jerry Moran
16% market probability
16%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 84%
+16 / −84
Explain your Yes on Jerry Moran
Explain your No on Jerry Moran
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Andy Kim
14% market probability
14%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 86%
+14 / −86
Explain your Yes on Andy Kim
Explain your No on Andy Kim
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Mark Warner
14% market probability
14%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 86%
+14 / −86
Explain your Yes on Mark Warner
Explain your No on Mark Warner
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Public forecast history
All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.
No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.