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Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Top outcomes

Rand Paul 42%
Kirsten Gillibrand 34%
Thom Tillis 32%
Mike Lee 28%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088 The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment. This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote. Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally. This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).

$55K Vol. Closes Jan 1, 2027

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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$54.5k Vol.

All outcomes

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$55K Vol.

Rand Paul

42% market probability

42%

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0 / 2,000

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Kirsten Gillibrand

34% market probability

34%

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0 / 2,000

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Thom Tillis

32% market probability

32%

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0 / 2,000

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Mike Lee

28% market probability

28%

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0 / 2,000

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Catherine Cortez Masto

28% market probability

28%

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0 / 2,000

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Ruben Gallego

27% market probability

27%

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0 / 2,000

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Lisa Blunt Rochester

24% market probability

24%

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0 / 2,000

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Alex Padilla

22% market probability

22%

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0 / 2,000

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John Fetterman

20% market probability

20%

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0 / 2,000

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Jacky Rosen

20% market probability

20%

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0 / 2,000

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Josh Hawley

19% market probability

19%

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0 / 2,000

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Raphael Warnock

17% market probability

17%

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0 / 2,000

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Jerry Moran

16% market probability

16%

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0 / 2,000

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Andy Kim

14% market probability

14%

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0 / 2,000

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Mark Warner

14% market probability

14%

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0 / 2,000

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