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Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
Top outcomes
Thom Tillis
10%
Mike Lee
9%
Raphael Warnock
8%
Jerry Moran
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088
The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment.
This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote.
Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally.
This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).
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$315K Vol.
Closes Jan 2, 2027
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$314.6k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$315K Vol.
Thom Tillis
10% market probability
10%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 90%
+10 / −90
Mike Lee
9% market probability
9%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 9%
+91 / −9
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 91%
+9 / −91
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Explain your No on Mike Lee
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Raphael Warnock
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
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0 / 2,000
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Jerry Moran
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
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0 / 2,000
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Kirsten Gillibrand
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
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0 / 2,000
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Andy Kim
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
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0 / 2,000
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Jacky Rosen
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
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0 / 2,000
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John Fetterman
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
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0 / 2,000
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Mark Warner
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
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0 / 2,000
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Alex Padilla
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
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0 / 2,000
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Ruben Gallego
6% market probability
6%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 94%
+6 / −94
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0 / 2,000
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Josh Hawley
6% market probability
6%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 94%
+6 / −94
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0 / 2,000
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Lisa Blunt Rochester
6% market probability
6%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 94%
+6 / −94
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0 / 2,000
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Catherine Cortez Masto
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
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0 / 2,000
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Rand Paul
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
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0 / 2,000
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