Resolved Polymarket

Which countries will sign the US x Iran deal by June 30?

Top outcomes

Pakistan 100%
Qatar 11%
Lebanon 10%
Oman 9%

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an authorized representative of the listed country signs the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. The agreement must be signed by an authorized representative of the listed country, acting on behalf of the listed country, including by signing a copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

$134K Vol. Closes Jun 30, 2026
Resolved outcome: Pakistan

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$134.0k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$134K Vol.

Pakistan

100% market probability

100%
Yes 100% +0 / −100 No 0% +100 / −0

Qatar

11% market probability

11%
Yes 11% +89 / −11 No 89% +11 / −89

Lebanon

10% market probability

10%
Yes 10% +90 / −10 No 90% +10 / −90

Oman

9% market probability

9%
Yes 9% +91 / −9 No 91% +9 / −91

Egypt

8% market probability

8%
Yes 8% +92 / −8 No 92% +8 / −92

Saudi Arabia

6% market probability

6%
Yes 6% +94 / −6 No 94% +6 / −94

Israel

4% market probability

4%
Yes 4% +96 / −4 No 96% +4 / −96

Jordan

4% market probability

4%
Yes 4% +96 / −4 No 96% +4 / −96

Syria

3% market probability

3%
Yes 3% +97 / −3 No 97% +3 / −97

Turkey

2% market probability

2%
Yes 2% +98 / −2 No 98% +2 / −98

Kuwait

2% market probability

2%
Yes 2% +98 / −2 No 98% +2 / −98
Forecasts are closed for this market.

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