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Pop Culture
Polymarket
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
Top outcomes
Drake
100%
Bad Bunny
100%
Harry Styles
100%
Ariana Grande
100%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart.
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026.
Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.
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$186K Vol.
Closes Jan 2, 2027
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$185.6k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$186K Vol.
Drake
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Bad Bunny
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
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Explain your No on Bad Bunny
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Harry Styles
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Harry Styles
Explain your No on Harry Styles
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Ariana Grande
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Olivia Rodrigo
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Olivia Rodrigo
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Mariah Carey
97% market probability
97%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 97%
+3 / −97
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 3%
+97 / −3
Explain your Yes on Mariah Carey
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Post Malone
28% market probability
28%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 28%
+72 / −28
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 72%
+28 / −72
Explain your Yes on Post Malone
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Morgan Wallen
24% market probability
24%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 24%
+76 / −24
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 76%
+24 / −76
Explain your Yes on Morgan Wallen
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Kendrick Lamar
20% market probability
20%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 80%
+20 / −80
Explain your Yes on Kendrick Lamar
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Sabrina Carpenter
20% market probability
20%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 80%
+20 / −80
Explain your Yes on Sabrina Carpenter
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Jack Harlow
19% market probability
19%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 19%
+81 / −19
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 81%
+19 / −81
Explain your Yes on Jack Harlow
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0 / 2,000
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Doja Cat
16% market probability
16%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 84%
+16 / −84
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Luke Combs
15% market probability
15%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 15%
+85 / −15
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 85%
+15 / −85
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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The Weeknd
14% market probability
14%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 86%
+14 / −86
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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SZA
14% market probability
14%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 86%
+14 / −86
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Travis Scott
14% market probability
14%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 86%
+14 / −86
Explain your Yes on Travis Scott
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Frank Ocean
13% market probability
13%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 13%
+87 / −13
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 87%
+13 / −87
Explain your Yes on Frank Ocean
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Future
12% market probability
12%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 88%
+12 / −88
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Lil Baby
11% market probability
11%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 11%
+89 / −11
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 89%
+11 / −89
Explain your Yes on Lil Baby
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Rihanna
10% market probability
10%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 90%
+10 / −90
Explain your Yes on Rihanna
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Peso Pluma
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Tyler, The Creator
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Zach Bryan
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
Explain your Yes on Zach Bryan
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Ed Sheeran
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
Explain your Yes on Ed Sheeran
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Playboi Carti
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Billie Eilish
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on Billie Eilish
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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A$AP Rocky
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Kanye West
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-27']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-27']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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