Open Pop Culture Polymarket

Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart. Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026. Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.

$151K Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

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$151.5k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$151K Vol.

Mariah Carey

90% market probability

90%
Yes 90% +10 / −90 No 10% +90 / −10

Ariana Grande

78% market probability

78%
Yes 78% +22 / −78 No 22% +78 / −22

Peso Pluma

64% market probability

64%
Yes 64% +36 / −64 No 36% +64 / −36

Playboi Carti

49% market probability

49%
Yes 49% +51 / −49 No 51% +49 / −51

Sabrina Carpenter

48% market probability

48%
Yes 48% +52 / −48 No 52% +48 / −52

Lil Baby

47% market probability

47%
Yes 47% +53 / −47 No 53% +47 / −53

Morgan Wallen

47% market probability

47%
Yes 47% +53 / −47 No 53% +47 / −53

Luke Combs

40% market probability

40%
Yes 40% +60 / −40 No 60% +40 / −60

The Weeknd

40% market probability

40%
Yes 40% +60 / −40 No 60% +40 / −60

Ed Sheeran

38% market probability

38%
Yes 38% +62 / −38 No 62% +38 / −62

Billie Eilish

36% market probability

36%
Yes 36% +64 / −36 No 64% +36 / −64

Kendrick Lamar

36% market probability

36%
Yes 36% +64 / −36 No 64% +36 / −64

Zach Bryan

35% market probability

35%
Yes 35% +65 / −35 No 65% +35 / −65

Travis Scott

34% market probability

34%
Yes 34% +66 / −34 No 66% +34 / −66

Future

33% market probability

33%
Yes 33% +67 / −33 No 67% +33 / −67

Post Malone

29% market probability

29%
Yes 29% +71 / −29 No 71% +29 / −71

Rihanna

28% market probability

28%
Yes 28% +72 / −28 No 72% +28 / −72

SZA

26% market probability

26%
Yes 26% +74 / −26 No 74% +26 / −74

Tyler, The Creator

26% market probability

26%
Yes 26% +74 / −26 No 74% +26 / −74

Frank Ocean

17% market probability

17%
Yes 17% +83 / −17 No 83% +17 / −83

A$AP Rocky

15% market probability

15%
Yes 15% +85 / −15 No 85% +15 / −85

Kanye West

8% market probability

8%
Yes 8% +92 / −8 No 92% +8 / −92

Jack Harlow

6% market probability

6%
Yes 6% +94 / −6 No 94% +6 / −94

Doja Cat

4% market probability

4%
Yes 4% +96 / −4 No 96% +4 / −96
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