Open Pop Culture Polymarket

SpaceX IPO: Who will be on-stage at the Bell Ceremony?

Top outcomes

Elon Musk 97%
Bret Johnsen 96%
Gwynne Shotwell 84%
Mark Juncosa 64%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". Bell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to "No" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony. A qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading. Being “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count. The primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

$35K Vol. Closes Jun 13, 2026

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$34.9k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$35K Vol.

Elon Musk

97% market probability

97%
Yes 97% +3 / −97 No 3% +97 / −3

Bret Johnsen

96% market probability

96%
Yes 96% +4 / −96 No 5% +95 / −5

Gwynne Shotwell

84% market probability

84%
Yes 84% +16 / −84 No 17% +83 / −17

Mark Juncosa

64% market probability

64%
Yes 64% +36 / −64 No 36% +64 / −36

Steve Jurvetson

64% market probability

64%
Yes 64% +36 / −64 No 36% +64 / −36

Antonio Gracias

46% market probability

46%
Yes 46% +54 / −46 No 53% +47 / −53

Shivon Zilis

44% market probability

44%
Yes 44% +56 / −44 No 56% +44 / −56

Jonathan Hofeller

42% market probability

42%
Yes 42% +58 / −42 No 58% +42 / −58

Luke Nosek

40% market probability

40%
Yes 40% +60 / −40 No 60% +40 / −60

X Æ A-Xii

36% market probability

36%
Yes 36% +64 / −36 No 64% +36 / −64

Brian Bjelde

32% market probability

32%
Yes 32% +68 / −32 No 68% +32 / −68

Kimbal Musk

22% market probability

22%
Yes 22% +78 / −22 No 78% +22 / −78

Grimes

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Hasan Piker

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Vivian Wilson

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Donald Trump

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Ashley St. Clair

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Barron Trump

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
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