Open Polymarket

São Paulo Governor Election Winner

Top outcomes

Tarcísio de Freitas 92%
Fernando Haddad 3%
Kim Kataguiri 0%
Erika Hilton 0%

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

$236K Vol. Closes Oct 4, 2026

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

$235.8k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$236K Vol.

Tarcísio de Freitas

92% market probability

92%

Explain your Yes on Tarcísio de Freitas Explain your No on Tarcísio de Freitas (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Fernando Haddad

3% market probability

3%

Explain your Yes on Fernando Haddad Explain your No on Fernando Haddad (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Kim Kataguiri

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on Kim Kataguiri Explain your No on Kim Kataguiri (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Erika Hilton

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on Erika Hilton Explain your No on Erika Hilton (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Márcio França

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on Márcio França Explain your No on Márcio França (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.