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Next Claude Opus released by...?

Top outcomes

December 31 99%
October 31 96%
September 30 72%
August 31 0%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

$61K Vol. Closes Jan 1, 2027

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$61.5k Vol.

All outcomes

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$61K Vol.

December 31

99% market probability

99%

Explain your Yes on December 31 Explain your No on December 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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October 31

96% market probability

96%

Explain your Yes on October 31 Explain your No on October 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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September 30

72% market probability

72%

Explain your Yes on September 30 Explain your No on September 30 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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August 31

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on August 31 Explain your No on August 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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Public forecast history

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