Open Science & Tech Polymarket

How many Tornadoes in the US in July?

Top outcomes

160–189 46%
100–129 46%
<100 37%
130–159 37%

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.

$2K Vol. Closes Aug 1, 2026

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$2.3k Vol.

All outcomes

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$2K Vol.

160–189

46% market probability

46%

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0 / 2,000

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100–129

46% market probability

46%

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0 / 2,000

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<100

37% market probability

37%

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0 / 2,000

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130–159

37% market probability

37%

Explain your Yes on 130–159 Explain your No on 130–159 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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310+

5% market probability

5%

Explain your Yes on 310+ Explain your No on 310+ (optional)

0 / 2,000

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220–249

5% market probability

5%

Explain your Yes on 220–249 Explain your No on 220–249 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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280–310

3% market probability

3%

Explain your Yes on 280–310 Explain your No on 280–310 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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250–279

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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190–219

1% market probability

1%

Explain your Yes on 190–219 Explain your No on 190–219 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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