Open Science & Tech Polymarket

How many Tornadoes in the US in July?

Top outcomes

<100 38%
100–129 30%
310+ 27%
220–249 25%

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.

$422 Vol. Closes Aug 1, 2026

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$422 Vol.

All outcomes

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$422 Vol.

<100

38% market probability

38%

Explain your Yes on <100 Explain your No on <100 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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100–129

30% market probability

30%

Explain your Yes on 100–129 Explain your No on 100–129 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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310+

27% market probability

27%

Explain your Yes on 310+ Explain your No on 310+ (optional)

0 / 2,000

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220–249

25% market probability

25%

Explain your Yes on 220–249 Explain your No on 220–249 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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190–219

24% market probability

24%

Explain your Yes on 190–219 Explain your No on 190–219 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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130–159

24% market probability

24%

Explain your Yes on 130–159 Explain your No on 130–159 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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160–189

24% market probability

24%

Explain your Yes on 160–189 Explain your No on 160–189 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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250–279

22% market probability

22%

Explain your Yes on 250–279 Explain your No on 250–279 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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280–310

21% market probability

21%

Explain your Yes on 280–310 Explain your No on 280–310 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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