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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 26?
Top outcomes
29°C
40%
30°C
28%
28°C
18%
27°C
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
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$18K Vol.
Closes Jul 26, 2026
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$17.9k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$18K Vol.
29°C
40% market probability
40%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 40%
+60 / −40
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 60%
+40 / −60
30°C
28% market probability
28%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 28%
+72 / −28
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 72%
+28 / −72
Explain your Yes on 30°C
Explain your No on 30°C
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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28°C
18% market probability
18%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 18%
+82 / −18
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 82%
+18 / −82
Explain your Yes on 28°C
Explain your No on 28°C
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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27°C
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on 27°C
Explain your No on 27°C
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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31°C
6% market probability
6%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 94%
+6 / −94
Explain your Yes on 31°C
Explain your No on 31°C
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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32°C
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on 32°C
Explain your No on 32°C
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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33°C
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on 33°C
Explain your No on 33°C
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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34°C or higher
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on 34°C or higher
Explain your No on 34°C or higher
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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26°C
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on 26°C
Explain your No on 26°C
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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25°C
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on 25°C
Explain your No on 25°C
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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24°C or below
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on 24°C or below
Explain your No on 24°C or below
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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